#They_Say War Paused? — But It’s About to #Explode | 💣 💥
#Mohammad_Marandi #Chas_Freeman
Transcript:
2:19
don't think the Israelis believe in Donald Trump um his claims that Iran has
2:25
been effectively disarmed Um and my own understanding of this which Muhammad may
2:31
well correct is that the um Iran is able to produce ballistic
2:37
missiles at a rate that is faster than Israel and the United States can produce
2:44
interceptors What's more the ballistic missiles are cheaper than the interceptors A single THAAD firing for
2:51
example is $30 million So there was a huge amount of money spent on both sides Uh but if the war
3:01
had gone on uh Israel was was going to run out of interceptors which is I
3:06
believe why they accepted Donald Trump's um request that they engage in a c
3:13
ceasefire And here uh my understanding and again Muhammad I invite your correction is that at the very outset of
3:20
the conflict um the actual war because the conflict has been going on for quite
3:26
a while um the uh Iran declared that it would cease fire if Israel did And so
3:34
what clutter was able to do as the intermediary was to ask Iran do you
3:40
stand by that statement are you prepared if Israel stops firing at you to engage
3:46
in a ceasefire And I think they got yes for an answer But the Israelis
3:52
agreed with Donald Trump's request for a ceasefire after a bit of negotiation
3:58
And um I think in their case um two things um first they had come to
4:05
recognize that in a war of attrition they were going to lose because Iran would be they would run out of
4:12
interception capability long before Iran ran out of the ability to strike them
4:18
And Iran was striking them very very hard Uh we've seen reports in Israel
4:24
that were immediately suppressed by the military sensors but which appeared
4:29
briefly that almost 33,000 claims have been filed for property damage Um there
4:35
was a lot of damage done Uh it was done not just to civilian infrastructure but
4:41
to military bases and strategic infrastructure for example the refinery
4:46
in Hifa Um and had this gone on um in addition to Hifa being essentially shut
4:53
down as a port um Ashtad might have been shut down So I think the Israelis looked
5:00
at this situation and realized that uh the better course would be the ceasefire
5:06
but they have not ended their ambitions with regard to Iran They have not agreed
5:12
to abandon them And this brings me to the last observation which is the irony
5:17
that it's in everyone's interest for Donald Trump uh Donald Trump's claim to
5:23
be accepted by the Israelis because then they wouldn't have any excuse uh for
5:28
another attack on Iran But I fear that they don't accept it Um I think they're
5:33
more realistic than that Uh and so what I expect to have happen now is both
5:39
sides will reconstitute themselves Um Iran will rebuild its air defenses Um
5:46
likely with Russia or Chinese are both uh helping Uh the missiles I note that
5:52
Iran uses apparently use Be the Chinese uh version of GPS as a guidance system
6:00
The chips are from China and so forth The guidance systems are from China So
6:07
China has been supplying dual use equipment to Iran It did not stop I
6:12
think it may now take another step an agree to replenish the Iranian air defenses Uh and I think that may have..
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